Shock Talk

Times like these at least somewhat help to explain what the opponents of a college football playoff system are thinking. I still don’t understand why the NCAA won’t mandate a tiny playoff – how ‘bout a football Final Four? – but the 2008 outlook sort of explains it.

Most schools around the country have hit the halfway point of their schedules. And without a playoff, even the completely unblemished teams feel the pressure to not slip up once.

In essence, the college football playoffs already have begun.

(But please note that the remainder of this column in no way signifies an abandonment of my long-held feelings that college football needs a playoff of some sort.)

Seriously, if a playoff system awaited the conclusion of the 2008 season – especially an eight- or 16-team version – there would be less urgency. Games would undeniably take on less importance. Losses would be less devastating. The regular season as we know it, the second half in particular, would lose that elimination-game feel to it.

Just think back to last season, when chaos broke out throughout the final eight weeks. No one seemed to want to claim a spot in the national championship game, as teams suffered losses that ruined their title hopes.

Now, with a playoff, the defeats may have only served as stumbling blocks. Instead, the 2007 season progressed with a Queen theme as another one, and another one, and then another one kept biting the dust.

In fact, seven teams lost as the second-ranked team to an unranked foe in the last eight weeks.

USC fell to Stanford. California was shocked by Oregon State. South Florida stumbled at Rutgers. Boston College lost in the rain at Virginia Tech. Oregon failed at Arizona. And LSU was shocked at home by Arkansas, but was rewarded with a surprising national-title game bid when Pittsburgh humbled West Virginia.

So, here’s a lesson for 2008: Expect the unexpected.

Every one of the legitimate national championship contenders – and we’ll include, say, the top 13 teams in the Associated Press poll – faces a daunting schedule in the second half.

Some remaining slates are ridiculously challenging, like No. 1 Texas’ four-game-in-five week stretch that includes No. 11 Missouri, No. 8 Oklahoma State, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 16 Kansas. Others are easier, like No. 6 USC’s six-week finish that contains only one ranked foe (No. 25 California).

But the 2007 season taught us it’s not only the expected tough games that trip up top-ranked teams. Again, expect the unexpected. Let’s take a quick look at the most likely upsets in the quasi-college football playoffs for the current top 5.

No. 1 Texas has to travel to Kansas. No. 2 Alabama must go to Tennessee. No. 3 Penn State could have trouble at Iowa. No. 4 Oklahoma has a sneaky tough trip scheduled to Kansas State. And No. 5 Florida already has a home loss to Ole Miss, so visits from Kentucky and South Carolina aren’t guarantees.

Then again, 2007 also reminded us that the top 5, as teams get ready for their Oct. 18 games, will likely look much different one month later. These teams are ranked Nos. 6 to 13: USC, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Brigham Young, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio State and LSU. Neither of them has more than one loss.
So in the absence of an official playoff, the second half of the 2008 season gives us the next best thing: An unofficial 13-team playoff.